If you want to get unbiased, sincere and factual information regarding current state of Bosnia and Herzegovina followed by one of the best predictions about Bosnian future you should look for The Johns Hopkins professor Daniel Serwer. I don’t think that there’s any other intentional scholar who knows more about Bosnia and Herzegovina at the moment, sometimes his statements are judged as controversial, biased or just as empty words said by some scholar from the United States, but in reality professor Serwer is real encyclopedia of current and past Bosnian situation. In his latest interview to Srajevo FaceTV and my colleague Senad Hadzifejzovic, Serwer said that Bosnian situation today is way better than it was twenty years ago when war started, he also add that current constitutional frame will and is preventing Bosnia to advance to the next level of European integrations.
According to Serwer, with what I totally agree, Bosnia with current state of affairs and constitutional frame is totally unable to follow Croatia’s, Macedonia’s, Montenegro’s road to European Union and if something doesn’t changes in the future even Kosovo will surpass it on the road to the EU. Years ago Venetian Commission warned Bosnian authorities that several dozens of constitutional elements, laws and governments structural elements are not in the line with EU requirements and those are still in place. Same body urged state authorities to conduct reforms if they want to continue advancement to the family of European states, but so far they failed to do that due to inability to strike consensus and agreement on “national” interests of each ethnic group. There’s also significant problems with enforcement of European Court of Human Rights decisions, especially in the case of Sejdic-Finci verdict.
Other important area for the Bosnia’s future is constitutional reforms which are stalled for a long period of time due to lack of political willingness to achieve agreement and how to shape new post-Dayton Peace Agreement Bosnia and Herzegovina. On direct question regarding future of negotiations and possible international community role in it Serwer said that Bosnian’s must to finish the job, period. Serwer righty concluded that American’s and European Union already tried to shape new Bosnian constitution with April packet, and two Butimir processes, but all of the fail unfortunately. I could not agree more with professor Serwer when he said that “USA would not destroy their own reputation on Bosnian constitutional reforms”. If Bosnian people really listen professor Serwer and many many others who’re coming out and pointing out same element they would understand that their future is in their own hands.
Asked about possibility of new war in Bosnia professor Serwer said that is almost impossible because international community would not permit new war under any circumstances. Responding on other question regarding possible Republic Srpska secession from Bosnia, Serwer said that’s not option and doesn’t matter what RS President Milorad Dodik said, RS will remain as part of Bosnia and must to find it’s place in it. In his opinion Bosnia and Herzegovina will survive all current problems as one country with two entities, as that is case today. As Bosnian and Herzegovinian I must to say it is nice to see some positive vibes from international stage, even if I’m highly sceptical when it comes to abilities of Bosnian government to finish something without foreign pressure and threats.