SURREY – As we’re moving ahead towards the next year provincial election in British Columbia BC Liberals and Christy Clark are receiving negative news, negative trends and opinions are continuing to hunt them over and over. Same situation happened on Tuesday when Angus Reid relased another poll which shows continuing shift in support from BC Liberals to BC NDP, and more over from Christy Clark to Adrian Dix. Another blow was delivered from one of the popular MLA’s in Lower Mainland, Dave S. Hayer decided not to run on next elections and BC Liberals will have great challenge to replace him with good enough candidate in the area which is shifting towards BC NDP. While BC NDP is still strongest political force, Liberals are going down, Conservatives and Green are also gaining not big but significant support. Looking at the Angus Reid data and reading blogs, news reports, and listening what’s going on in social media I’m pretty sure that current situation will stand unless something really amazing happens over the next few months.
Christy Clark also didn’t succeed to keep her team away from scandals, some of her old scandals are coming again in the publics focus and she’s bringing back some of Gordon Campbell old soldiers to help her stay in power. Recently her newly appointed director of communications attacked journalists, BC Rail is still capturing publics attention thanks to bloggers like Alex G. Tsakumis, BCLC and former minister Harry Bloy are just some of the other elements gathering negativity on Clark’s account. After so many negative polls and all departures from BC Liberals caucus, I don’t think that Titanic can be saved, but that could be good for the party. While it can be good for the party I’m not sure that it can be good to Christy Clark and her position of the leader of BC Liberals, that is exactly what I was predicting it will happen if she doesn’t prove her readiness to run the province.
Metro Vancouver become orange zone
What I’m finding the very interesting and significant in the whole story about the BC Liberals and their quest to remain in power at this point less than a year before election is that they lost the support of electorate in Metro Vancouver which was their strongest base once. Today according to Angus Reid Poll BC NDP has support of 47% in Metro Vancouver while BCC is the 2nd strongest party with 24%. That’s exactly why I said that Hayer’s decision not to run on next election is so frightening and it could be troubling to the BC Liberals. Good news could be Kevin Falcon decision to run on the election and that at least Cloverdale-Langley riding will remain in BC Liberal hands.
Young voters aged 18-to-34 and older voters aged 35-to-54 are strongest population standing behind Adrian Dix and his BC NDP with 50% and 47% of support respectively. Having this population on the side of your biggest rival means that you’re not doing particularly good job in fulfilling your promises. If we add to these numbers only 17% of females who will support BC Liberals if election was held today that means something is wrong in BC Liberals views of the province situation and needs. Premier Clark started her campaign with famous initiative “The Families First” agenda and here we see that exactly those who’re BC families and youngest members of those are not satisfied with her and government work. I’m not surprised with these facts because whenever I spoke with people, especially young people, interested in politics I’m faced with question about real intentions of the government and wish to work. Many are surprised how much Assembly spent time in sessions since Clark become premier, amount of positive legislature which is brand new is also disappointing and fights with all kinds of unions also helped to shift popularity towards Adrian Dix/BC NDP.
Household Income is also interesting element in this poll because it shows that BC Liberals don’t have big support among any of three groups of voters (<$50K, $50-99K,$100K+). Decided voters with income under $50K and $50-99K are preferring BC NDP to BC Liberals 46% to 21% and those from $100K+ 41% to 32%.
Health, Economy, Education to Dix – Federal/Provincial politics to Dix
Several very important areas of life at this point according to Angus Reid are going to Adrian Dix with pretty significant percentage and those are exactly ones where Christy Clark and BC Liberals fought biggest battles recently. Dix got thumbs up on health care (35%), education (32%), the economy (25%) and crime (21%), two out of these areas are the the most important to the British Columbians. The Economy hold first place with (25%), followed by health care (18%), education is the most important issue to only 6%, and crime/public safety to only 3%. To compare these number with Clark’s results we can see totally different situation. On health care Clark got only 13% of support, education (16%), the economy (20%) and crime (13%). Premier Clark is tied with Adrian Dix on federal/provincial relations with 20% to 21% respectively. Difference of only one point between them is another blow to the Premier Clark who spend significant amount of time working on building relations with PM Harper and his ministers. It is important to mention turbulent negotiations and relations with BC Teachers, anesthesiologists and Public Service workers we can say that all these unions are hoping that when Dix takes power in 2013 their situation will be much better and new collective contracts will be signed.
Disapproval to Clark
Christy Clark as the leader and premier performed so bad according to this poll that 64% think her performance is not satisfying, only 28% think she perform well, while 8% is not sure. On the other side Dix is not so excellent like that looks from the other results because his approval is on 48%, but disapproval is also high with 38%, with 15% undecided about his performance.
Over the last three months according to Angus Reid voters opinion about Clark went from bad to worst in big swing, and if continues like this Gordon Campbell could soon get pretty strong contestant for the position of the worst. When you face yourself with 55% of voters saying that their opinion about you worsened over the last three months I think it is time to sit down and ask yourself are your on the right track. Only 30% of those express same opinion about Clark, while only 8% expressed their positive opinion about her. Another blow to Premier who was brought in by the BC Liberals party to change publics opinion and improve relationships with voters after significant blow delivered by Gordon Campbell in 2010.