Bosnian political turmoil is probably one of the longest in modern European political history. Beside recent claims from local politicians assessing that latest turmoil is the biggest and the most troubling one, I would strongly disagree because it never end since 1990 and first democratic elections. Over the last two decades Bosnia went through political, economical, military and nationalistic disputes claiming approximately 100,000 lives, displacing almost two millions of Bosnian citizens, received several dozens billions of dollars in financial help and still remains on the back of European and Balkanian success or reform list. A dozen of different international representatives ranging from Austria, over Spain, England, Slovakia and Germany have been sent to Bosnia to fix countless problems, to build a peace and bring reconciliation to nation thorn apart by nationalism and hate.
Of course they didn’t succeed in their mission, and Bosnia continues to be thorn apart, separated, segregated and above everything as a state careless when it comes to problems of those in need. Now once more international community is warning that current situation is not acceptable, latest warning come from High Representative Valentin Inzko at the United Nations Security Council. In his report, published in late November, Inzko clearly said that Republika Srpska and its president Milorad Dodik are one of major obstacles on Bosnia’s integrations and reforms path, but also other Bosnian entity Federation of B&H is responsible for good deal of current problems. While Inzko is labelling these leaders and their parties are main problems in Bosnian political society today he refuses to use his Bonn powers and sanction Dodik’s or any other politician actions. Not doing so he’s giving them new chance to endanger Bosnian reforms processes and to push it away from accession to NATO/EU membership.
While Inzko is permitting them to continue playing silly games of nationalism, personal and media wars academia, opposition and civic society representatives are calling for international intervention. Many of them would like to see stronger US presence, action and leadership but that’s almost impossible to expect. Here are the reasons. Obama administration is preoccupied with domestic politics and fights over fiscal cliff, on the international scene UNGA created another big problem to Obama with elevation of Palestinian status, Syria’s civil war is raging more than a year and there’s no end in sight, Egypt is in new turmoil over Morsi powers, Iran is still troubling key player in MidEast, and of course there’re still Afghanistan and Pakistan and their Taliban/Al-Qaeda situation. To all these we need to add much anticipated cabinet shuffle expected this month or in early January and quest for Clinton, Paneta, Geithner successors among others. US intervention in Bosnia is highly unlikely, and would be another challenge with uncertain end, Obama will not play games with his or administration integrity and open another Balkanian Pandora box like Clinton did it in 1995 in Dayton.
So who could come and intervene in Bosnia? European Union? Maybe. But again highly unlikely in such broad mandate as before. Why? Well internal fiscal, economical and political problems are threatening to rip once strongest union in the world in small and distant pieces again turned against each other on all above mentioned reasons and disputes. They don’t have time to play silly games with Dodik, Lagumdžija or any other politician or to be involved in media wars because on one side is Greece, on the other is Slovenia, David Cameron is threatening to pull UK out of the Union, and Merkel could easily lost next elections. Some would say: “Yes, that’s right. But EU is involved in Kosovo negotiations.” That’s true but EU I just a host of talks, Prime Ministers of Serbia and Kosovo are the negotiations whom are creating new agreements.
As I’m not expecting neither US or EU to get more involved in Bosnian crisis resolution, I’m throwing more expectations behind new political force which will emerge soon, and would be lead by Presidency member and former Social-Democratic Party No.2, Zeljko Komsic. Komsic is one of the most popular civic politicians in Bosnia, on last elections got 350,00 votes largest individual support in country, and a person who’s dignity and fight for better Bosnia is well known in the region. Left wing coalition which will be created upon establishment of his party already draws attention and gives us a hope that Bosnian political scene could be changed. So Bosnian voters will be those who’ll decide who’s and how will lead the country over the next few years and where Bosnia would go in the future. And that’s exactly in a line with previous statements by international community and commentators that only force which can change Bosnia and push it towards better future. I hope they’ll have enough strength to say No to nationalistic, theo-nationalistic and corruptive parties for sake of their and new generations future.