Over the last few weeks PM Harper and his government are caught in one of the biggest scandal seasons over the last decade or so. They succeed in creating such amazing number of scandals, some of them tightly related, some totally unrelated, but after all extremly damaging. The biggest is so called “Duffy Gate” or Wright/Duffy affair which is still going on very strong and according to latest media reports it will stay strong for a while. Over the last few days we heard many comments regarding Harper’s popularity and potential voters support, but it is way to early to start talking who will win 2015 elections and how our voters will see the country then. Two years are too long period to make any predictions. Let’s just remember pollsters mistakes in many provincial elections, especially on the recent BC elections where they didn’t gave any chances to Christy Clark after what she won strong majority and new term for BC Liberals.
Harper is in deep trouble. Scandals are mounting and emerging every single day. So far five of his cabinet members decided not to run in next elections or resigned from the cabinet prior to expected summer cabinet shuffle. He lost key person in the red chamber, also we learned that Vic Toews is leaving federal politics so there Harper is loosing one of his key players in the House of Commons. What he should do now is to start major overhaul of his cabinet and his own office where majority of problems are created through his former chief of staff Nigel Wright. Mother Nature also does not cooperate well with Stephen Harper recently. When he was hoping that his major speech at the Conservative convention in Calgary will steer attention from Wright/Duffy flooding hit Alberta, and that event is postponed for sometimes later this year. In a days when he was getting ready to unveil new team with fresh blood on key governmental posts another disaster hit Quebec forcing him to postpone and deal with effects of that event. What really interests me is: “Is he really done?” Based on what I see now and what I read so far I’m not so sure that he’s yet done. Scandal season is troubling, but if he’s able to find proper theme which will occupy voters and public over the substantial period of time he could easily change whole situation in his favor. Economy, jobs, free trade agreement, pipelines or security in light of latest terrorist activities and plots could play great significance in CPC effort to remain in power and lead by Harper. Quebec and Atlantic Canada will decide his faith in 2015 because of that he’s attention should be directed there. British Columbia will be another area where CPC will have a bit harder job to win much needed seats, but let’s not forget that this province will have more seats before 2015 elections and even more chances to elect CPC candidates to the House.
Official opposition aka NDP and current third party aka Liberals are currently playing political games directed against Harper but it seems they’re going against them. Based on current polls Trudeau’s gang is very popular or it would be more suitable to say mega-popular. Mulcair’s NDP is loosing popularity especially in one of their critical areas, Quebec, also they’re pretty much weak in British Columbia and Alberta where they need to get some seats if they want to win majority. I totally understand them when they’re going after Harper for Wright/Duffy scandal or other Senate issues, but to go to Calgary or Lac Megantic to score some cheap political points I can’t understand. Trudeau crashed an event organized by Alberta Premier Redford probably in effort to show how much he “cares” about people in Alberta and to send them a message “hey I’m here for you, vote for me in 2015”. Well from PR point it’s an amazing move, but people will remember what he did for them when they needed him at most.
On the other side Mulcair showed how much he cares for people of Quebec, his native province. Instead to go there to offer a help to people of Lac Megantic he went there to deliver classic rant against his political opponent for not doing something what he thought was suppose to be done. He delivered similar message to voters without thinking about them as a human beings or those in need. Well done Mr. Leader of the Opposition.
At this moment all three major political players at the scene are in trouble either with scandals or with PR disasters created by them or their teams. None of them can claim support from voters and public for their actions or political organizations. Let’s see what Harper will do with his team rebuilding process and what’s gonna happen when RCMP finishes investigation into the Wright/Duffy affair but also let’s leave 2015 predictions to rest at least until next calendar year when we will have better view of 2015.